Guides
What is risked NAV?
Net asset value discounts a mine plan's future cash flows to today. Risked NAV goes a step further and reduces that figure for the chance things do not go to plan.
From project NAV to risked NAV
A project NAV assumes the mine is built and performs as planned. That is rarely certain for a development asset. Risked NAV multiplies or discounts the project value by the likelihood of success and by factors reflecting specific risks such as metallurgy, permitting, funding, execution, jurisdiction and community acceptance.
Where the numbers come from
They come from you. OreScore uses the scores you set. They are judgements, not measurements, and two analysts can reasonably disagree. Its weighted score and execution factor are illustrative model haircuts, not calibrated probabilities of success. A useful habit is to record why you selected each score and rerun the model with harsher values.
Limits
Risked NAV is only meaningful when the underlying mine plan is defensible. A risk haircut applied to a guess is still a guess. Treat the result as a way to compare projects and to see how sensitive value is to the risks, and never as a prediction of a share price.
Try it with your own figures
The calculator starts with the market snapshot. Nothing is pre-filled for you, and results depend on what you enter.
Open the mining stock calculatorFrequently asked questions
- Is a lower risked NAV a sell signal?
- No. It is not advice. It simply shows value after the risks you assigned.