Price the company
before the mine.

What this is

A transparent screening tool built on your inputs. It is not a feasibility study, a forecast or investment advice, and no output is a recommendation to buy or sell. All money is in USD. Production is in koz for gold and silver and kt for copper; costs are per oz or per lb; totals are in USD millions.

Missing inputs and defaults

Each output has its own prerequisites. If one is missing, that output shows a dash and the reason; the others still calculate. An entered number is not a verified number. Optional inputs left blank (corporate G&A, growth capex, conversion capital, production schedule, other assets) are left out and do not change results, though blank G&A can overstate NAV, so a disclaimer appears. Defaults apply only inside features you switch on: M&I and inferred conversion weights (50% and 20%), the 15-year resource extension cap, and pipeline rates (USD 150, 60 and 20 per oz). You can edit them.

Market screen

Market cap = share price × basic shares. EV = market cap + debt + other liabilities − cash. Annual free cash flow (FCF) = revenue − royalties − operating costs − sustaining capex − tax, at steady-state output. Tax = tax rate × pre-tax cash flow, with no depreciation; to allow for it, enter an effective rate. With several mines, company FCF counts only complete producing assets with a start year of 0, at your ownership share, less corporate G&A. Model value / share = (FCF × your multiple − debt + cash − other liabilities) ÷ diluted shares. The multiple is your assumption; no single multiple suits every company. This is separate from NAV.

Costs: avoid double counting

AISC already includes sustaining capital, so sustaining capex is ignored for an asset on an AISC basis. Enter it only with cash cost.

Resource screen

Value = contained metal × price × recovery × payability × ownership × category weight (P&P 78%, M&I 58%, inferred 28%). These weights are fixed screening weights, not probabilities. Rows are summed without deduplication, so check whether M&I already includes P&P. This is a quick in-ground figure that ignores capital, costs and timing, and it is not NAV. Rows marked "Exclude from resource screen" are left out of this figure only.

Mine-by-mine DCF

Each mine has its own finite cash flows and discount rate, and there is no terminal value. Yearly cash flow = annual FCF × that year's factor. The factor comes from your production schedule, or otherwise rises in a straight line over the ramp-up years. Asset NPV = present value of cash flows − initial capex × (1 + contingency) − present value of closure and growth capex. Capex falls at the asset's year zero, and the whole NPV is then discounted back by its start year. Project IRR is shown only for a single asset with no start offset, schedule, growth capex, G&A or resource extension. Strip ratio is information only and does not change costs.

Resource tiers

The default values P&P through the mine plan. "+ M&I" and "+ Inferred" convert your chosen share of those ounces into extra years at the same annual output, capped at 15 years by default, with optional conversion capital per ounce. M&I reported as inclusive is netted against P&P for the same mine and metal; M&I with no stated basis is not converted. Extra years are not proven mine life.

Risk

Risk factor = execution probability × (1 − execution risk ÷ 200) × (1 − average of the other five risks ÷ 200). Positive NPV is multiplied by this factor. Negative NPV is left as it is, so a haircut can never improve it. These are illustrative haircuts, not calibrated probabilities.

From assets to NAV per share

Equity NAV = sum of risked NPVs at your ownership share + cash − debt − other liabilities + other assets − present value of corporate G&A. NAV / share = equity NAV ÷ fully diluted shares. G&A runs over the production-weighted asset life, at your corporate rate or else the production-weighted asset rate. Price / unadjusted NAV uses NPVs before the risk haircut; Price / NAV uses them after it. Gold-equivalent ounces (AuEq) convert other metals at your entered prices. EV / reserve oz uses attributable contained P&P ounces, before recovery.

Inventory-only assets

An asset without economics adds no DCF value, and its value is unknown, not zero. Pipeline value uses a study NPV or the per-ounce rates, after the risk haircut, and is shown separately from NAV / share.

Scenarios

Bear, base and bull apply your prices and production and capex multipliers to the same company. The range shows sensitivity to your assumptions, not the odds of an outcome. If a stock only works in the bull case, find out which assumption explains the gap. The saved-company page adds what the share price implies and sensitivities, computed the same way.

Funding and dilution

Optional, and it never changes ordinary NAV. Equity raised = (funding required + other needs) × equity share. New shares = equity raised ÷ raise price. Funded NAV / share = (equity NAV + applied convertible debt + equity raised × (1 − issue costs)) ÷ (diluted shares + new shares). The raise is assumed to happen today, and any non-equity funding is not modelled. For existing securities, options and warrants use the treasury method per row, RSUs, PSUs and DSUs count in full, and convertibles convert if in the money. Nothing applies until you choose "Use as fully diluted shares".

What the model leaves out

One steady-state cash flow scaled by year factors; no depreciation, working capital, inflation or debt schedule; flat prices within a scenario; no grade changes beyond your schedule. Results are only as sound as the inputs. A precise answer built on guesses is still a guess.

AISC · Risked NAV · Resources vs reserves